The political dynamics of Bihar is changing very fast. Initially when Nitish Kumar crossed over to NDA camp, one more time, in the last month of January, the poll pundits were making predictions of an easy win for BJP-led NDA and a repeat of the 2019 results when NDA got 39 out of 40 seats in Bihar. But the poll scenario seems very different now. The NDA is facing a very tight contest in every seat, writes Anish Ankur, on the eve of the 6th phase of the general elections.

Old caste equations and political preferences seem to be changing fast in Bihar. Political parties have distributed tickets keeping in mind the previous voting pattern and preference of particular social and caste groups. But it seems, the voters are not allowing themselves to be taken for granted. Different caste groups are refusing to be the captive voters of a particular party. They are trying to come out of their old caste loyalties and try to engage with the new situation. Voters are now more demanding and not ready to get away with mere ‘Jumalebaji’ (empty promises). This new trend is more evident in the sixth phase in Bihar than the previous one.

Phase 6 of the Lok Sabha elections will be conducted on May 25 with 57 constituencies from 7 States/Union Territories, including Haryana and Delhi, going to the polls. In Bihar, polling will take place in eight parliamentary seats in the sixth phase on Saturday. These seats are Siwan, Gopalganj, Maharajganj, Valmiki Nagar, Purvi (East) Champaran, Paschim (West) Champaran, Vaishali and Sheohar. 

Out of the eight seats, BJP is contesting in three, JD(U) in four and LJP(R) in one seat. BJP candidates are contesting from East Champaran, West Champaran and Maharajganj, JD(U) is in the fray from Valmikinagar, Sheohar, Gopalganj and Siwan whereas LJP(R) has thrown in its hat in the Vaishali. 

On the INDIA block side, RJD is contesting from four seats – Valmikinagar, Sheohar, Vaishali and Siwan. Its alliance partner, the Congress is trying its luck in West Champaran and Maharajganj whereas, Vikassheel Insan Party (VIP) is in the battle from East Champaran and Gopalganj.

The fifth phase which concluded on 20th May saw post-poll violence in Saran constituency in which one RJD supporter was killed in the gun firing allegedly by the BJP supporters. This violent incident was the product of rising tension because of intense caste and political rivalry unleashed in the constituency since the announcement of Lalu’s daughter Rohini Acharya as a candidate from Saran. The one person who died and the two who were seriously injured belonged to backward caste Yadavs and those who fired on them were allegedly from upper caste Rajputs.The post-poll violence in Saran may have repercussions on the sixth phase, as it has generated a frenzied atmosphere among the voters loyal to the contesting parties. There are apprehensions that the next phases may also witness a cycle of retaliatory violence. All the NDA candidates from Maharajganj, Vaishali, Sheohar, Siwan and East Champaran parliamentary seats are Rajputs. 

Commenting on this new political scenario, senior journalist Pranav Kumar Chaudhry said “It will certainly affect the next phases as the elections are going to be held in the ‘Magadh’ and ‘Shahabad’ region where Yadavs play an important role. The Saran incident will mobilise the disgruntled and scattered backwards particularly in favour of RJD and the INDIA alliance.”

In Maharajganj which is adjacent to Saran, two time BJP MP and former youth, sports and cultural minister in the Nitish Government Janardan Singh Sigriwal is facing a tough time against Akash Singh, son of state Congress president and Rajya Sabha MP Akhilesh Singh. In 2019, Akash Singh fought on an RLSP ticket led by Upendra Kushwaha from East Champaran but lost. This time, he is posing a formidable challenge to the seasoned politician Janardan Sigriwal. The Saran post-poll violence may polarise the backward castes voters, other than the traditional ones, in favour of Akash Singh the INDIA alliance in Maharajganj.

The contest between Janardan Singh Sigriwal and Aakash Singh may also turn out to be a caste rivalry between Rajputs and Bhumihars, the two main upper castes in Bihar, with a history of caste rivalry in state politics that goes back six decades. But in recent years, both the castes vote for the BJP. In Maharajganj, both the powerful caste groups seem to be pitted against each other. This is the new electoral scenario, and it would be interesting to see whether Bhumihars while voting give caste rivalry preference or not? Bittu Bhardwaj, a law student in Patna University and active in the Maharajganj election said “Maharajganj is Rajput dominated parliamentary constituency and is called ‘Chitaurgarh’ in local language. The Bhumihars vote for the BJP, but now there is a feeling among the Bhumihar voters that for the first time a Bhumihar candidate is contesting from here, and therefore we should give chance to the young face. Aaksh’s father is also camping here and the campaign is going on in an aggressive manner. Anti-incumbency factor is also going against the BJP’s candidate.’’

The same story is being repeated in the Vaishali parliamentary constituency, where Vina Singh, sitting Rajput MP of LJP(R) led by Chirag Paswan, part of the NDA, is in the fray against Munna Shukla of RJD, a Bhumihar with a criminal background. Bhumihars are traditionally considered to be an ardent anti-RJD caste group throughout the Lalu-Rabri era to present times. Two elder brothers of the RJD candidate Munna Shukla were killed in the caste rivalry after Lalu Yadav came into prominence in Bihar political scene. Vaishali has witnessed some sensational killing of Bhumihar political figures. But now the politics of Bihar have changed and this can be understood from the fact that the RJD has fielded a strongman from Bhumihar community to contest. In Vaishali also the electoral fight may turn out to be a Rajputs vs Bhumihars battle, a fight between ‘Dhanbali’ (wealthy Veena Singh) and ‘Bahubali’ (strongman Munna Shukla) in local parlance. 

In Sheohar, the most backward district of Bihar in terms of development indicators, the caste dynamics have also changed since 2019. Lavli Anand, wife of criminal turned politician Anand Mohan is trying her luck against the popular RJD women candidate Ritu Jaiswal with a clean image. Anand Mohan was serving life imprisonment for the murder of a Dalit IAS officer J.J Krishnaiya in 1994. But Nitish Kumar tweaked the jail manual rules to get Anand Mohan released from jail so that he can influence the Rajput voters in the constituency.

But will this strategy work for the JD(U) and NDA? Rama Devi, a Vaishya, was the BJP MP from Sheohar since 2014. Lavli Anand, a Rajput, replaced her this time. In the neighbouring Sitamarhi parliamentary constituency, another Vaishya dominated seat has been given to a Brahmin candidate. This caused a lot of consternation among the Vaishya voters. On the other hand, the RJD candidate from Sheohar is Reetu Jaiswal, a Vaishya. Vaishyas are the oldest and traditional supporters of BJP in the country. But now things have changed to such an extent that the traditional social base of BJP is going to vote for a RJD candidate from the Vaishya caste. Ritu Jaiswal’s husband is an ex-IAS officer who quit his job and teaches those students who aspire for the civil services and IAS exams. Now the youth of Sheohar can be heard saying ”The fight is between an IAS killer (Anand Mohan) and IAS maker (Ritu Jaiswal’s husband)”. The AIMIM has put up a Hindu candidate, Rana Ranjeet Singh, from Sheohar, but it will hardly have any effect on the polarised poll scenario in Sheohar.

Another interesting political battle is going on in Siwan. INDIA alliance have fielded former Bihar Assembly Speaker Awadh Bihari Chaudhry from Siwan, while NDA’s candidate is Vijaylakshmi Devi, wife of former CPI(ML-Liberation) leader Ramesh Kushwaha, who later joined Upendra Kushvaha’s RLSP, and just some days before switched to JD(U) to get a ticket for his wife Vijaylakshmi Devi. Ramesh Kushwaha’s father Sitaram Kushwaha was among the founders of CPI (ML-Liberation) in Siwan. In Siwan, Vjaylakshmi Devi, a Kushwaha, has replaced sitting Rajput MP Kavita Singh. The Rajputs are reluctant to back the NDA nominee. 

The most interesting twist in the Siwan parliamentary constituency is the presence of an independent candidate, Hina Shahab, wife of heavyweight muscle man Mohammad Shaabuddin, a several time RJD MP of Siwan, who died in Tihar jail during the Corona epidemic. Hina Shahab refused RJD’s offer to contest from Siwan  and preferred to contest as an independent because she has a lot of grievances with RJD for not giving proper respect to her late husband during his last days and after his death. In Siwan, the BJP supporters have lined up for Hina Sahab instead of official NDA candidate Vijaylakshmi Devi. Saffron flags can be seen in the meetings of Hina Shahab, a Muslim woman. It should be kept in mind that Siwan is the district where  Jan Sangh, the earlier version of BJP, was founded. The villagers of Amlauri, where Jan Sangh was founded and the village visited by all prominent BJP leaders like Atal Bihar Vajpai, Lalkrishna Advani etc., are saying unanimously that instead of the candidate from BJP ally JD(U), we are favouring Hina Shahab. One villager’s comment can be an eye opener for the BJP and NDA “In this election we are against Modi despite being the traditional BJP supporters. If anyone thinks that we are the slave of any party then it is wrong. You sell the ticket for money and expect us to vote for whosoever is imposed on us. This is not going to happen. This time we are helping Hina Shahab to win.” Siwan is witnessing a similar story like in Purnea, where BJP-RSS cadres were campaigning for the independent Pappu Yadav.

In Valmiki Nagar, JD(U) fielded its sitting MP Sunil Kumar against Dipak Yadav, who was in the BJP before being picked up by RJD for this seat.

In West Champaran, BJP current MP and former state president Sanjay Jaiswal has locked horns with Madan Mohan Tiwary of Congress. In Gopalganj, reserved for SC, JD(U) current MP Alok Kumar Suman is contesting to retain the seat against Premnath Chanchal of VIP. AIMIM’s Dinanath Manjhi is also in the fray from Gopalganj.

In East Champaran, former union agricultural minister and several time MP Radha Mohan Singh is facing Rajesh Kumar Kushvaha of VIP.

The political dynamics of Bihar is changing very fast. Initially when Nitish Kumar crossed over to NDA camp, one more time, in the last month of January, the poll pundits were making predictions of an easy win for BJP-led NDA and a repeat of the 2019 results when NDA got 39 out of 40 seats in Bihar. But the poll scenario seems very different now. The NDA which won by a big margin in 2019 is facing a very tight contest in every seat, this time. Though, on the basis of 2019 poll performance, many experts and poll analysts are predicting that despite some erosion in the BJP support base, the electoral equation in Bihar is still in favour of the NDA.

Contradicting this point, Kumar Sarvesh, a poll analyst and social activist commented “Those who are trying to understand Bihar through the 2019 lens will reach the wrong conclusion. Most of the poll experts on Bihar are making this mistake. This time old equations are not working and new political dynamics have emerged. You will have to take in consideration the 2020 assembly election results to have a better understanding of the state. Old caste framework is not sufficient to have a feel of the new electoral scenario.”

A lot of talk and discussion is going on about how every caste is shifting their stand in every constituency. Every caste, particularly of the NDA side, is behaving in an unpredictable manner. Even the upper castes seem to be drifting away from BJP and Narendra Modi. The Brahmins, who generally prefer BJP, are not appearing enthusiastic enough this time. Take for example the case of Achyutanand Jha, a marginal farmer from the Brahmin dominated Suksena village of Purnea district. When asked by a correspondent of a YouTube channel ‘Janmedia’ that being a Brahmin, will you naturally vote for BJP, his reply was “The upper sections of  Brahmins vote for BJP because they think that Narendra Modi will save them but the small farmers and poorer sections don’t find any reason to vote for him. They don’t get the proper price for their agricultural produce and there is widespread corruption everywhere. We buy seed at four hundred rupees but we get only eighteen hundred rupees per quintal for our produce. They give six thousand in a year to the farmers but take away many times more. They think we are fools and don’t understand their game. How can we vote for the BJP?’’