All the five seats going to poll in fifth phase in Bihar had been won by NDA with a big margin in the 2019 election. But things are changing at the ground level. A report by Anish Ankur.

Will Chirag Paswan be able to retain the Hajipur seat, considered to be a family bastion of  the famous dalit leader late Ramvilas Paswan? And will Rohini Acharaya, Lalu Prasad’s daughter, who donated her kidney to save the life of her ailing father, be able to win the Saran parliamentary constituency from BJP leader and ex-union minister Rajeev Pratap Rudhi? These two questions are hogging the limelight on the eve of the 5th phase of the parliament election in Bihar going to be held on May 20. In the four out of five constituencies going to polls in the fifth phase, the offspring’s of some of the famous political figures of Bihar are in fray contesting from different political parties. 

Groundxero visited Hajipur and Saran (old name Chhapra) and talked to people of different walks of life to get a sense of their mood in the two constituencies. The significance of Hajipur and Saran can be understood from this simple fact that Prime minister Narendra Modi campaigned in both the seats on 13th May, a day after his massive road show in Patna.

Hajipur, 20 km north of Patna, is one of the most talked about parliamentary seats in the fifth phase. This SC reserved constituency had witnessed the biggest ever victory margin in the electoral history of Bihar when Late Ramvilas Paswan won by a margin of 4.98 lakh votes in 1977 elections held after the emergency. In the same year, Lalu Prasad had won the Saran parliamentary constituency with the second biggest margin. Lalu Prasad at that time was the youngest parliamentarian in the country. Ramvilas Paswan went on to win from Hajipur for eight times while Lalu Prasad Yadav represented Saran thrice. 

In 2024, the son and daughter of Ramvilas Paswan and Lalu Prasad are in the fray to claim their family legacy. In 1977 Ramvilas Paswan and Lalu were on the same side i.e. Janty Party, but in this election their children Chirag and Rohini (a first time contestant) are in the opposite camp. While Rohini is in the INDIA allaiance, Chirag is in the NDA.

In 2019, Pashupati Kumar Paras, now estranged uncle of Chirag Paswan, won from Hajipur with a big margin defeating Shivchandra Ram from RJD. Shivchandra Ram is once again in the fray but this time he is pitted against Chirag Paswan. 

In a earlier report, we had already discussed the family-feud after the demise of Ramvilas Paswan in October 2020, that erupted between Chirag and Pashupati Paras, and how the BJP intervened in favour of Chirag to dump Pashupati Kumar by denying him even a single seat in this parliamentary election. Consequently the sulking Paras, despite being in the NDA, is silently working against Chirag. 

This time Chirag Paswan is pitted against RJD’s Shivchandra Ram, a Chamar by caste, who was culture minister in the Nitish government during 2015-17 period. 

Groundxero met local journalist Devendra Gupta at ‘Konhara Ghat’, a place of mythical importance in the Hindu mythology. According to Devendra Gupta’s observation “It’s very difficult to say anything this time but it is going to be a very tough electoral battle for Chirag Paswan. He may have the benefit of Ramvilas Paswan’s goodwill but it should be remembered that his estranged uncle Pashupati Paras who last represented this seat has very strong connections here. After Ramvilas Paswan’s death it was Pashupati Paras who replaced him. He knows the constituency very well while Chirag is a newcomer to Hajipur.”

Hajipur has six assembly constituencies. In the 2020 assembly election, three seats (Mahua, Mahnar and Raghopur) were won by RJD while two (Hajipur and Lalganj) went to BJP and one seat (Rajapakar) was won by Congress.

Chirag Paswan represented Jamui parliamentary twice but now he is claiming his father’s seat. But it seems that all is not going well for Chirag Paswan. When he  started his election campaign by garlanding the statue of B.R Ambedkar, a group of young boys of Hajipur washed the statue after he left, because, according to them,  Chirag Paswan had desecrated Ambedkar’s statue by garlanding it. They said Chirag is standing with those forces who want to change the constitution drafted by Baba Saheb Ambedkar. The video of the washing of the Ambedkar statue by these young Dalit activists went viral in the entire constituency. 

The Hajipur seat is going to be the testing ground for Chirag Paswan credibility. Although he has his father’s legacy on his side, he never has been connected with the people of Hajipur. 

As to the kind of hurdle he is facing, Jaiprakash, a social activist of Digghi village in Hajipur, said “He has annoyed the old loyalists of the Party. These people may work against him. Despite Chirag’s appeal among his caste base there is a very sizable social base of anti-NDA parties here. If Shivchandra Ram of RJD works with good strategy he may put up a formidable challenge for Chirag.”

Groundxero met an anaesthetic doctor and literary figure of Hajipur, Shailendra  Rakesh, who echoes the same sentiment, saying “Chirag Paswan is having a very tough time in 2024. The first problem with him is that he doesn’t have a connection  with the people of Hajipur like his father Ramvilas Paswan had. People of Hajipur feel sympathetic towards Ramvilas Paswan but whether he is able to translate that sympathy into votes or not is difficult to say. Another factor is his uncle Pashupati Paras, who will not like that Chirag wins from here because it may finish his own political career. Pashupati has a lot of contacts here; it was he who ran the day-to-day affairs of Hajipur since the Ramvilas Paswan days.” 

It should be noted that before 1977 Hajipur was a general constituency. The socialists and communists had considerable influence here. It was one of the main centres of socialists in northern India. Even Bhagat Singh had a very live contact with this place. His prominent comrades from this area were Yogendra Shukla, Baikunth Shukla, Kishori Prasanna Singh, Suniti Singh, Chandrama Singh among others. Baikunth Shukla was hanged in 1934 for taking the revenge of Bhagat Singh’s martyrdom with the sensational killing of Fanindra Nath Ghosh, an approver in Sanders murders case, due to which Bhagat Singh was hanged to death. Gandhi Ashram of Hajipur used to be the meeting place of the Socialists, Communists and Revolutionaries. 

All the subsequent political figures of Hajipur owe their allegiance to this great tradition of Gandhi Ashram. Social activist Anil Lodhipuri, associated with Gandhi Ashram, drew an analogy between Chirag Paswan and Shivchandra Ram with an old fight between Ramsundar Das, a Chamar, and Ramvilas Paswan. He commented “Ramvilas Paswan was nurtured by these famous socialist leaders of Hajipur, particularly Sitaram Singh, who nominated him in 1977, when the seat was reserved for SC candidate. This move was aimed at countering Ramsundar Das, a Chamar by caste, and by then a prominent dalit face in Bihar. Sitaram Singh promoted a new Paswan leader in place of the old and established Ram Sunadar Das. Ram Sundar Das later became the chief minister of Bihar during 1977-79 period. Ramvilas Paswan had to face defeat in Hajipur twice. The man who defeated him in the 2009 parliamentary election was Ramsundar Das.” 

Now it seems that the 2009 phenomenon is likely to be repeated when a Chamar candidate Shivchandra Ram is again taking on Chirag Paswan. Anil Lodhipuri added “ If we take the arithmetic and chemistry of the Hajipur, it is going in favour of Shivchandra Ram, but the central question is about booth management. NDA is very good on this front. Shivchandra Ram is very close to winning this seat, the only concern is his election management.”

In Saran (earlier Chhapra) parliamentary constituency, a high decibel campaign is going on, as Lalu Prasad’s daughter Rohini Acharya is pitted against Rajeev Pratap Rudhi, a three time MP. Rohini attracts large crowds wherever she addresses a rally.  In the 2014 parliament election, Rohini’s mother, ex-chief minister of Bihar Rabri Devi lost to Rajeev Pratap Rudhi, while in 2019 another Lalu’s family member Chandrika Rai, father-in-law of Tejpratap Yadav and son of former chief minister Daroga Prasad Rai, fought against Rudhi and was defeated by a margin of 1.5 lakh votes. This time Chandrika Rai is in the Rudhi camp as his relationship with Lalu Prasad’s family got worsened when his daughter had a marital discord with her husband Tejpratap. The relation between both the families took an ugly turn and now both are in the opposite alliances. Chandrika Rai quit RJD to join JD(U) and is now campaigning for Rajeev Pratap Rudhi. 

The big question is whether Rohini Acharya will be able to win this Saran parliamentary seat once represented by his father Lalu Prasad? Some people are now comparing the achievements of Lalu Prasad tenure with Rajeev Pratap Rudhi. Dr K.N Singh, a retired medical doctor and social activist of Berni Bazar under Dariyapur block of Saran parliamentary constituency said “Rajeev Pratap Rudhi is MP of Chhapra from last 10 years but he did nothing for the constituency. In 2014, Narendra Modi while campaigning for Rudhi had promised reopening of Marauhda sugar mill and even said that in the next election he will drink tea made from the sugar of the Marauhda sugar factory but nothing happened. Those were just empty promises.  Rajeev Pratap Rudhi doesn’t have live contact with the people of Chhapra. He does not visit any village in his constituency.”

78 year old Dr K .N Singh further added ” Whatever developmental work has been carried out in the Saran constituency, the credit goes to Lalu Prasad. During his stint as Railway Minister he is credited with the opening of railway engine factory in Marauhda, Railway wheel factory in Bela village of Dariyapur block and establishing railway line between Chhapra and Muzaffarpur. It was Lalu Prasad who laid the foundation stone of Jaipraksh Narayan (JP) rail cum road bridge connecting Patna to Sonepur falling under the Saran parliamentary constituency. Lalu Prasad was instrumental in the opening of JP University, medical as well as engineering college in Saran. If we compare the work done by them then Rajeev Pratap Rudhi will stand nowhere before Lalu Prasad.” 

What will be the outcome of this high profile contest? K.N Singh finally said “It’s a very tight contest. To compensate for his failure Rudy is spending a lot of money. But he will have to face the discontent of the people. One thing is clear: a wind of change is going on in Saran.”

But some people don’t agree with this view. Triptinath Singh, another social activist and music lover based in Sonepur told Groundxero “Last time the victory margin of Rajeev Pratap Rudhi was around 1.5 lakh votes. This time the only difference will be the reduced victory margin. It will not affect the outcome of the election as I am ninety percent sure that at last Rajeev Pratap Rudy will get through.” Commenting on the allegation that he is not easily available to the people of Saran, Triptinath Singh said ” He is not a kind of politician who is readily available for your family functions. These days people like to see their MPs and MLAs at their doorstep and like them to attend even their small family events. An MLA and MP is not meant for this type of activity. Rudhi’s working style is different, take the example of the  ‘Namanmi Gange’ project. How efficiently he implemented it. He has beautified many riverfront ghats and those have become outing places for the people. His other achievement is introduction of gas-pipe in some select homes of Sonepur. It is in the trial stage now but will soon be made available to a larger section of the people. Although there is a direct and close fight between Rudhi and Rohini but caste and social equation is also in Rudhi’s favour.” 

What are the issues dominating the Saran election campaign? Surendra Nath Tripathi,  a senior advocate of Saran civil court,  said “There are only two issues at work.  Pro-Modi and Anti-Modi. Rajeev Pratap Rudhi, the BJP candidate, is irrelevant here and the only concern is anyhow to retain the seat for the third time for Narendra Modi. All the big wealthy and corporate-type people, RSS cadres and those opportunist elements who are seen during the election season are on the side of Rajeev Pratap Rudhi while on the other side are those people who want to defeat Modi. And in my view this time the common people of Saran are against the BJP. Local issues don’t matter. It’s a very polarising scenario. Rajeev Pratap Rudhi doesn’t like to mix with common people. He is totally an elite personality. When he was MLA,  he used to wash his hands after shaking hands with the common people of Saran.”

Other parliamentary constituencies in this phase are Sitamarhi, Muzaffarpur and Madhubani. Muzaffarpur is witnessing a fight between Congress candidate Ajay Nishad, son of famous Nishad leader and five time MP captain Jainarayan Nishad,  and BJP nominee Dr Raj Bhushan Choudhry. In 2019, Ajay Nishad won as a BJP  candidate while the BJP nominee fought on a VIP ticket. Ajay Nishad had defeated  Raj Bhushan Choudhry with a huge margin. This time, both have changed and switched their party with each other. 

Both these candidates are very rich. According to a report of Association for Democratic Reforms (ADR) and Bihar Election Watch (BEW), Ajay Nishad ranks second with assets of 29 crore, followed by his rival Dr Raj Bhushan Choudhry with total assets of 16 crore. In terms of assets, Singapur based Lalu’s daughter Rohini Acharya tops the list with assets of Rs 36 crore. Rohini also tops the list of candidates with high income as declared in income-tax return (ITR). 

In Madhubani, Ali Ashraf Fatmi is contesting on an INDIA alliance ticket against Ashok Yadav of BJP. Ashok is son of Hukumdev Narayan Yadav, a several time MP, who had got the best parliamentarian award along with ‘Padmahree’. In 2019, Ashok Yadav won this seat riding on the popularity of his father.

In Sitamarhi, Deveshchandra Thakur is contesting against Arjun Rai of RJD. Deveshchandra Thakur, a Brahman, has been fielded for the first time in recent years after being denied ticket to Baniya community, considered traditional supporters of BJP. It may affect the poll equation of Sitamarhi and neighbouring parliamentary constituency of Sheohar.

How is the fifth phase different from the preceding four phases? Senior journalist Kumar Anil, who runs an independent news portal, summed up his thoughts in these terms “As the election progresses, issues are changing in every phase, for example, on the one hand,  the NDA led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi is raking up issues like Ram Mandir and other Hindu-Muslim divisive agenda, while on the other hand INDIA allaince led by Tejasvi Yadav was raising the unemployment issue forcefully till the first phase, but after that ‘Save the Constitution’ became the central slogan, and in this fifth phase another two issues have been added — one of giving ten kilogram of food grain instead of five kg being currently given by the Modi government, and Rs eight thousand five hundred per month or one lakh per year to poor women.’’

How are these things impacting the caste equation of Bihar polls? Kumar Anil responded “All the five seats in fifth phase had been won by NDA with a big margin in the 2019 election. If we take caste combination of that time into consideration, then all the non-Yadav backward castes, extremely backward castes (EBCs) and Dalits were with NDA, but now in the fifth phase we can say with certainty that INDIA have made inroads into all the three major social compositions of non-Yadav backward castes, EBCs and dalits. The question of threat to the Constitution has percolated down to the lower level of society particularly among the dalits and EBCs and it has created suspicion among a large section of these communities toward the BJP led NDA. Till ten days before, the Hajipur seat was being portrayed as a comfortable win for Chirag Paswan, but now things seem to have changed dramatically. In Sitamarhi, Home Minister Amit Shah had to reveal his Baniya identity because now they fear that they would have to face the backlash for not giving ticket to a Baniya candidate. We can feel how things are changing at the ground level.”