Both the electoral alliances in the state have done their caste calculations to suit their political as well as electoral interest. The Tejaswi Yadav led INDIA alliance is trying hard to dent the social base of the NDA.

By Anish Ankur

April 18, 2024

Election campaign for the parliamentary election is gaining momentum in Bihar and political temperature is rising as the poll day approaches. Manifestos of almost all the parties have come out. Host of NDA leaders from Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Home minister Amit Shah, Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, UP Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath to Union defence Minister Rajnath Singh are regularly addressing election rallies in part of the state where elections for four constituencies — Nawada, Jamui, Aurangabad and Gaya are scheduled to be held on 19th April. Out of these four constituencies, two are reserved seats i.e. Gaya and Jamui, while Nawada and Aurangabad are the two general seats.

Within the NDA alliance, BJP is contesting Nawada and Aurangabad while HAM (S) and LJP (Chirag) are in fray from Gaya and Jamui respectively. From the INDIA alliance all the four seats in the first phase are being contested by RJD.

Bihar has a total of 40 parliamentary constituencies, the fourth highest in the country after Uttar Pradesh (80), Maharashtra (48) and West Bengal (42). According to the seat sharing arrangement for NDA in Bihar, JD(U) led by Nitish Kumar is contesting sixteen seats (one less than in the 2019 parliamentary elections), LJP led by Chirag Paswan is contesting five seats and one each by RLM led by former union minister Upendndra Kushvaha and HAM (Secular) led by former chief minister Jitan Ram Manjhi while BJP is contesting the remaining 17 seats.

Table-1  (NDA allaince seat sharing in Bihar)

BJP has dumped union minister Pashupati Paras in favour of Chirag Paswan. Pashupati Paras didn’t even get his seat in Hajipur. Hajipur, once represented by late Ramvilas Paswan, was allotted to Chirag Paswan. Initially Pashupati Paras was very angry with this seat sharing but when he didn’t get any response from the opposition RJD he seemed to have mellowed down in the hope of a future deal. LJP had won six seats in the 2019 parliamentary election but after the death of Ramvilas Paswan, family feud broke out between uncle Pashupati Paras and nephew Chirag Paswan. Meanwhile, except Chirag Paswan, the five other LJP MPs have sided with the Pashupati Paras. BJP has left the fate of Pahupati Paras hanging in balance.

The INDIA alliance had to work hard before clinching a final deal on seats among the six parties consisting of RJD, Congress, CPI, CPI(M), CPI(ML-Liberation) and VIP. After tough negotiations between Congress and RJD for some seats, particularly Purnea in the Seemanchal area, Congress at last managed to get nine seats despite RJD’s initial reluctance. RJD gave three seats to VIP from its own quota.

Table -2 (INDIA alliance seat sharing in Bihar)

In spite of scorching heat, the election campaign is going on in full swing. In Gaya, south Bihar, former chief minister and HAM(S) leader Jitaram Manjhi is pitted against Kumar Sarwajeet of RJD. Due to the presence of Jitaram Manjhi, Gaya has become a hot seat. All the important leaders of NDA have campaigned in Gaya. The political importance of Gaya for the INDIA alliance can be understood from the simple fact that Tejasvi Yadav has alone addressed eight big rallies in Gaya.

In the Jamui, Munger division, brother-in-law of Chirag Paswan, Arun Bharti, is in fray on LJP(R) against Archna Ravidas (wife of a local contractor) of the RJD. In 2019, Chirag Paswan won this seat. PM Narendra Modi started his campaign in Bihar from the Jamui parliamentary seat.

Aurangabad seat in South Bihar was a bone of contention between RJD and Congress. Congress wanted to field Nikhil Kumar from Aurangabad, considered to be his family bastion. Nikhil Kumar, a former IPS officer, is the son of former chief minister of Bihar Satyendra Sinha and grandson of Anugrah Narayan Sinha, a very prominent and respected freedom fighter and the first finance minister of Bihar after independence. Congress tried hard to retain this traditional stronghold but at last RJD prevailed and fielded Abhay Kushwaha from Aurangabad. Susil Kumar, a three time MP from BJP is the NDA face from Aurangabad.

In Nawada, BJP has fielded Vivek Thakur, currently a Rajya Sabha member and son of CP Thakur, the former union minister under Vajpayee government. From the last three or four parliamentary elections, Nawada has witnessed outsider candidates winning this parliamentary seat. Vivek Thakur also carries an outsider tag. Therefore, the local versus outsider may be a factor in Nawada, this time. The RJD candidate is Shrawan Kushwaha. RJD is facing internal rebellion here as Vinod Yadav, brother of strongman Rajbhallav Yadav (currently behind bars after being convicted in a rape case of a minor girl) is in the fray as an independent candidate. Vinod Yadav enjoys the support of some MLAs and MLCs from the RJD. He can create trouble for the RJD candidate by making a dent in the RJD’ support base. It will be a challenge for Tejasvi Yadav to transfer the vote of RJD’s social base to a Kushwaha candidate. On the other hand, Folk-singer Gunjan is causing trouble for the BJP candidate Vivek Thakur as both are from the same caste background.

RJD leader and former deputy chief minister of Bihar Tejaswi Yadav is the target of almost all the leaders of NDA. Prime minister Modi is attacking him for eating fish during the auspicious Navratra while Nitish Kumar is trying hard to dispel the impression that it was Tejaswi who provided jobs to lakhs of unemployed youth during the 18 months tenure of his government in alliance with RJD from August 2022 to January 2024.

Dissident jumping to other parties

Bihar witnessed leaders of various political parties changing their party after ticket distribution was completed. When denied tickets by their party, they crossed over to the opposition party in the hope of getting a ticket. Mohmmad Ashrag Fatmi after being denied ticket from JD(U) from Darbhanga shifted to RJD and was fielded from Madhubani. Ashfak Karim of RJD when denied ticket from Katihar joined JD(U). There are several such examples. Purnea parliamentary seat witnessed a lot of political drama. ‘Jan Adhikar Party’ (JAP) led by criminal turned politician Pappu Yadav merged his outfit with the Congress on 20th March in the hope of getting a ticket from Purnea but RJD refused to allot this seat to Congress. RJD gave ticket to JD(U) turncoat Bima Bharti. She was a minister in the NDA government in the state. When RJD offered Bharti the Purnea seat, she quit the Nitish ministry, accepted the RJD offer and is contesting from Purnea. Meanwhile, after being denied ticket Pappu Yadav declared his candidature from Purnea as an Independent. Pappu Yadav was the prime accused in the murder of Ajit Sarkar, a three time CPI(M) MLA from Purnea. 

Fissures within NDA

Initially Narendra Modi and Nitish Kumar were campaigning together but after some joint campaing meetings, they are not seen campaigning together for unknown reasons. Political circle is abuzz with a lot of rumours about tension and discord brewing up between Modi and Nitish. According to some political observers, there is no coordination between JD(U) and BJP activists at the ground level. In the election campaign meetings, usually Nitish Kumar speaks before Narendra Modi. During his speech Nitish Kumar concentrates more on his own government achievements in Bihar. He hardly praises Modi as is the norm wherever Narendra Modi is on the dias. Narendra Modi and BJP disapproves of this attitude of Nitish. Nitish Kumar was not present in the Purnea and Gaya rally of Narendra Modi. It’s very strange that during the Prime Minister’s visit and campaign, the chief minister from the same alliance is absent. Nitish Kumar’s conspicuous absence from the joint election rallies is giving rise to another narrative that Nitish Kumar is taking revenge for the assembly election of 2020 when his party’s strength was cut short because of BJP. At that time, LJP led by Chirag Paswan, with the active support of BJP, put up candidates on all the assembly seats where JD(U) was contesting. JD(U) was part of the NDA alliance during the 2020 assembly election. Chirag Paswan didn’t put up any candidate against BJP and used to say that he is ‘Hanuman’ of Narendra Modi. Consequently, Nitish Kumar’s party seats were reduced to just 43 and ranked third in terms of number of MLAs. Now, it seems, it is Nitish Kumar’s turn. During the assembly election, Nitish Kumar’s stakes were high, to retain his chief ministership, while this time, Narendra Modi’s stakes are high, to retain his Prime Ministership. Some commentators like writer and activist Anant Kumar feel “there is a widespread feeling among the JD(U) social base (Extremely backward castes, Kurmis and others) that only due to BJP, our leader had to face the humiliation of reduced strength in the 2020 assembly election. Now it’s an opportune time to settle the score with BJP and Narendra Modi, since Nitish Kumar has nothing to lose in the parliamentary elections.”

There are reports from various constituencies, the core support base of JD (U) may vote against the BJP candidates, particularly in Nawada.

Issues during election campaign 

NDA leaders are raking up mostly old issues like corruption and dynastic rule of RJD during 1990-2005. 

While speaking at an election rally in Bihar, Narendra Modi tried to corner the RJD by saying “RJD is the face of Jungle Raj in Bihar. It has given only two things – Jungle Raj and Corruption.” UP chief minister Yogi Adityanath’s attack was also centred on RJD giving priority to family members. At the Aurangabad rally, Yogi Adityanath ridiculed RJD  by stating, “Be it development, giving seats or reaping benefits of any scheme, the family came first for RJD.” He further added, “Bihar was passing through an ‘identity crisis’ during RJD ‘goonda raj’. RJD was busy recovering ‘rangdari tax’ from the people.” BJP leaders are also campaigning in  communally loaded language. 

RJD on the other hand is focusing on issues like corruption revealed from the Electoral Bond scheme data, declining living standards, insecurity among minorities etc. But the most fierce attack on BJP came from Lalu Prasad through his social media handle X. Due to health reasons, Lalu Prasad is not taking part in election rallies but his sarcastic comments on BJP is earning him media attention. In a recent post on X (Twitter), Lalu Prasad commented “Senior leaders of BJP are continuously claiming to change and abolish the Constitution, but instead of taking some action against them, the Prime Minister and its top leaders are making them contest elections as a reward. The Dalits, backward and poor people of this country will gouge out the eyes of those who want to change the constitution.” 

The post further added “By changing the Constitution, they want to end equality, freedom, fraternity, social justice and reservation from this country. They want to make people slaves of RSS and capitalists. What do they want to prove by repeatedly talking about changing the Constitution? Our Constitution has been written by Baba Saheb Ambedkar, not by any other Baba. The justice-loving, peace-loving and Dalit-Backward people of this country will teach them a befitting lesson.” 

Caste equations keeping in view the caste survey

This parliamentary election is the first election after the caste survey conducted last year in the state. The caste survey results have helped the parties to reframe their politics in accordance with the caste equations reflected in the survey. RJD gave more tickets to those castes which are considered outside their core social base. This shift in policy is the direct outcome of last year’s caste census. RJD was accused of  being a Muslim-Yadav (MY) party. But RJD has accommodated two Kushwaha candidates from seats having sizeable Yadav population like Nawada and Aurangabad. 

Bihar’s caste survey results made public on October 2 last year showed that extremely backward communities — which comprise 112 castes – constitute 36.01% of the state’s population, and backward castes formed by 30 communities make up another 27.12%. Together, OBC — the umbrella group consisting of backward castes and EBCs in the state — is 63.13%, confirming estimates done by National Family Health Surveys. Scheduled Castes form 19.65% and Scheduled Tribes 1.68% of the state’s population. The total population stood at over 13.07 crore, of which the general category is 15.52%.

All the parties have tried their best to choose candidates in proportion to their caste population. This table will explain how both the alliances have adjusted to the caste realities of Bihar, brought out by the caste survey.

Table -3 

     Total                   40                   33

The above table shows how different caste groups matter for political parties. NDA is banking more on upper caste, extremely backward castes and on SCs while INDIA alliance is concentrating on OBCs, mostly, Yadavs and Muslims. RJD has tried to expand its social base beyond the MY( Muslim-Yadav) by including more caste groups into its fold. Therefore, they gave more tickets to Kushwahas, considered close to NDA. The INDIA alliance gave five seats to Kushwahas while the NDA gave four to them. Both the electoral combinations are trying to woo Kushwahas, who comprise 4.2 percent of the state’s population. 

SCs comprised almost one fifth of Bihar’s population. All the important political faces of SCs like Chirag Paswan and Jitanram Manjhi are in the NDA. To counter this, the INDIA alliance gave five tickets to SCs against NDAs six. RJD has even fielded an SC candidate from a general seat, Supaul, against the general norm in Bihar, where SCs contest only from seats reserved for them. RJD’s move might increase the vote share of the INDIA alliance among the SCs. 

The caste wise data of contesting candidates is not complete because Congress party has not yet decided the name of its candidates in six seats. Both the electoral alliances in the state have done their caste calculations to suit their political as well as electoral interest. They have vast experience in dealing with this complex social structure in Bihar. How the caste arithmetic impacted their politics and the voting behaviour will become clear after the results are out on 4th June.  

Anish Ankur is a freelance journalist from Patna, Bihar.